KORELASI MATA UANG: NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN BRICS DI TENGAH KETIDAKPASTIAN EKONOMI DUNIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56127/jekma.v4i2.2052Keywords:
Nilai Tukar,Rupiah, BRICS, Ketidakpastian Global, VARAbstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis korelasi antara nilai tukar rupiah (IDR) dengan mata uang negara-negara BRICS (RMB, RUB, INR, BRL, dan ZAR) dalam konteks ketidakpastian ekonomi global. Pergerakan nilai tukar antar-negara semakin dipengaruhi oleh faktor eksternal seperti volatilitas harga komoditas, perubahan suku bunga internasional, serta ketegangan geopolitik. Studi ini menggunakan data time-series harian dari tahun 2014 hingga 2024 untuk mengevaluasi hubungan jangka pendek dan panjang antara rupiah dan mata uang BRICS. Metode analisis melibatkan Vector Autoregressive (VAR) untuk melihat keterkaitan jangka Panjang dan Impulse Response Fucntion (IRF) untuk melihat prediksi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya hubungan signifikan antara nilai tukar rupiah dan beberapa mata uang BRICS, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun panjang, dengan tingkat volatilitas yang bervariasi. Faktor eksternal seperti perubahan kebijakan moneter Amerika Serikat dan fluktuasi harga komoditas global turut mempengaruhi dinamika hubungan ini. Temuan ini memiliki implikasi penting bagi pengambil kebijakan moneter di Indonesia dalam menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar dan memitigasi risiko eksternal. Selain itu, penelitian ini memberikan rekomendasi bagi pelaku bisnis terkait strategi manajemen risiko dalam perdagangan dan investasi dengan negara-negara BRICS.
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