The Effect of Investment Risk and Investment Opportunity Set on Stock Returns: Earnings Per Share as a Moderating Variable
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56127/jaman.v6i02.2973Keywords:
Investment Risk, Investment Opportunity Set, Market Valuation, Stock Return, Signaling TheoryAbstract
Stock returns reflect investors’ responses to systematic risk, growth opportunities, and financial performance signals. Previous studies report inconsistent effects of investment risk and the Investment Opportunity Set (IOS) on stock returns, indicating the need to examine moderating firm-level factors. Objective: This study aimed to analyze the effects of investment risk and IOS on stock returns and evaluate the moderating role of Earnings per Share (EPS) among Kompas 100 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2020–2024. Method: A quantitative explanatory design was employed using secondary data from 12 purposively selected companies, generating 60 firm-year observations. Panel data regression and Moderated Regression Analysis were conducted using EViews 12. Findings: Investment risk (β = 0.0731; p = 0.7532), IOS (β = −0.0539; p = 0.0736), and EPS (β = −0.0867; p = 0.8889) had no significant direct effects on stock returns. The Beta × EPS interaction was insignificant (p = 0.9134), whereas IOS × EPS was positive and significant (β = 0.3394; p = 0.0028). Implications: Growth opportunities become more relevant when supported by stronger earnings performance. Originality: This study demonstrates EPS as a complementary signal that strengthens the IOS–stock return relationship in large, liquid Indonesian firms.
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